Israel proposes 2050 net zero blueprint, envisioning solar energy share reaching 77%

Israel's Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has released a blueprint for achieving net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050, and it relies heavily on solar.

The plan foresees three scenarios for achieving this goal, depending on the development of underlying technologies and policies. In the first, solar energy becomes increasingly cheaper and more efficient. In the second, hydrogen technology matures. In the third, the country allows nuclear power plants to operate.

"According to our model, electricity demand is expected to grow to around 19.2 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) per year (about 220TWh) in 2050, more than three times the current electricity demand," the ministry said in a statement. "Due to the electrification of transportation and industry, electricity demand will grow faster and faster in the coming years. Total energy demand will also increase by 1.5 times by 2050."

Under the solar plan, which the document calls the "Yellow Vision," 64% of Israel's energy needs could be met by photovoltaic power plants by 2050. Under this vision, Israel's solar capacity would reach 108GW, with 70GW of four-hour energy storage capacity. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) would be $91.5/MWh.

“This scenario deploys a higher share of solar and assumes that technological developments in solar and storage will reduce the price of solar and increase its efficiency,” the ministry explained. “In addition, this scenario assumes the existence of a technological solution to integrate PV power into the grid and further promote other solutions, such as floating PV (FPV) and agrivoltaics.”

The second scenario, which the ministry calls the “blue solution,” assumes that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and natural gas-based hydrogen production account for 30% of energy, while PV accounts for 45% and imports account for 25%. In this case, power generation could be based on 56% PV, 38% hydrogen and 6% imports. This scenario could include 75GW of solar power plants, 34GW of four-hour storage and a levelized cost of electricity of $105.6/MWh. “This scenario would require significant infrastructure investment and would only be feasible if hydrogen production becomes more efficient and economical.”

The last, the “red scenario,” is premised on the introduction of nuclear power into Israel’s grid. In this scenario, solar could account for 55%, nuclear 19% and imports 26% out of all energy categories. Solar would account for 57% out of all energy sources, with hydrogen and nuclear each accounting for 19%. This scenario could require 80GW of solar power plants and 50GW of four-hour energy storage. In this scenario, the levelized cost of electricity is expected to be $96.50/MWh.

"The vision is based on the assumption that Israel has two large nuclear power plants and several small nuclear power plants in 2050," the ministry said. "The vision relies on the technological development of modular nuclear reactors, international policy guidelines and a deep public discourse space on the implementation of such technologies."

Israel is committed internationally to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050. In addition, the ministry stressed that local councils need to promote a net zero emissions law. The blueprint will go through public hearings before the government adopts it.